Heroinforbruk og heroinbeslag i Norge

Abstract

NORSK SAMMENDRAG: I perioden 2000-2008 ble det i gjennomsnitt beslaglagt 61 kilo heroin i Norge pr. år. Mengden som beslaglegges varierer mye fra år til år, fra 8 kilo heroin i 2007 til 129 kilo i 2004. Politiet stod for 98 prosent av alle beslag, mens Tollvesenet beslagla ca. 55 prosent av total mengde. Tollvesenets andel av total beslagsmengde har økt de siste tre årene.

Forbruk av heroin SIRUS har beregnet hvor stort forbruket av heroin er i Norge i løpet av et år på oppdrag av Toll- og avgiftsdirektoratet. Det er første gang en slik beregning er gjort i Norge.

For å kunne beregne det samlete forbruket av heroin må man beregne antall brukere og mengde heroin de bruker i løpet av et år. Heroinbrukerne er delt inn i tre grupper: problembrukere, sporadiske brukere og eksperimentbrukere. Problembrukerne står for det meste av heroinforbruket i Norge.

Forskerne anslår at forbruket i perioden 2006-2008 var i underkant av 1500 kilo. Forbruket har gått ned fra 2000-2002 da det estimerte anslaget var i overkant av 2000 kilo. Nedgangen skyldes i all hovedsak en reduksjon i antall problembrukere i Norge i dette tidsrommet.

Beslag i forhold til beregnet heroinforbruk Beslaglagt mengde utgjorde i gjennomsnitt fire prosent av beregnet heroinforbruk i perioden 2000-2008. Politi og Tollvesenets beslag sto hver for ca to prosent.

I forhold til beregnet forbruk og antall problembrukere skiller ikke norske beslag seg fra andre land der det finnes tilsvarende beregninger. I Norge beslaglegges 4,8 kg heroin pr tusen problembrukere mens tilsvarende tall for Storbritannia er 4,5 kg, Australia 4,9 kg, Italia 6,2 kg og Spania 3,9 kg.

ENGLISH SUMMARY: • Each year between 2000 and 2008, 61 kilos of heroin were seized in Norway on average. In terms of the number of seizures, the customs authorities took a mere 2 per cent, but in terms of quantities seized, they took about 55 per cent. To estimate how much heroin is consumed in Norway, we estimated the number of persons using heroin in the course of a year and multiplied that number by an estimate of the amount consumed. We adopted as a working assumption a threefold division of heroin users: experimental users; occasional users; and problem users. We subdivided the latter group by route of administration: administration route is considered to impact the amount of heroin taken. We estimated the annual quantities taken by users who only inject, users who only smoke the drug and users who do both. Because of insufficient data subdivision of occasional and experimental users by route of administration proved unfeasible.

• We used a multiplier method to estimate the number of problem users injecting heroin. The method uses the annual number of drug-related deaths, an estimate of mortality in the group, and the percentage of all causes of death comprised by overdose deaths. We were then able to calculate how many heroin injecting users there would have to be for that number of recorded drug-related deaths to be valid. The numbers of heroin users who ingest only by smoking or by smoking and injecting were estimated as a percentage of this figure. Estimates of the numbers of experimental and occasional users respectively were made on the basis of survey data.

• Dosage was mainly estimated from information on heroin users obtained by special surveys, including frequency of use and dosage on each occasion. There is wide variation in the quantities taken, both within the group of problem users and, not least, between problem, occasional and experimental users. Our estimates suggest that injecting problem users consume annually about 160 grams, heroin smokers about 118 grams, while combined smokers and injectors consume an annual average of 140 grams. We assume that the occasional users take heroin twice per month, giving an annual consumption rate of 6.6 grams. The smallest share of overall consumption is, naturally enough, down to the experimental users, whom we assume try heroin on average twice, resulting in 0.3 grams for each of them.

• In 2006, the amount of heroin consumed in Norway was estimated to be around 1,445 kg. 2006 is the last year for which we have reliable data for calculating the number of problem users. It shows a drop from the years 2000?2002, when the estimated figure exceeded 2,000 kg. The main cause of the reduction was a fall in the number of problem users.

• According to our calculations, problem users are the principal consumers of heroin in Norway. If we change the number of occasional users, for instance, or estimated dosage by 20 per cent, the total quantity changes only by plus/minus 5 kg (1,440?1,450 kg). If we change the number of experimental users or the amount used by them, the effect is minimal. But a 20 per cent change in the number of problem users changes the estimated consumption figures by 15?17 per cent (1,205?1,730 kg), and changing annual consumption figures changes the estimated figure by 16?20 per cent (1,160?1,730 kg).

• For the years 2000?2008, seizures made by the police and customs authorities amounted, we found, on average to 4 per cent of the total amount of heroin consumed in Norway. Overall average seized by the customs was 2 percent. In per cent of estimated overall consumption, seizures by the customs authorities in 2006 came out on top at 6 per cent, with the lowest rate in the following year, 2007, when less than 1 per cent of the total amount consumed was taken.